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Neural Foundry's avatar

Brilliant synthesis of how financial products have evolved into lottery mechanisms! The parlay/zero-day options/perps triumvirate really captures how the industry has converged on the same dopamine-driven design. What strikes me is the illusion of control - parlays let you "craft a story" while options let you tie bets to "catalysts," but both are essentially gambling dressed up as analysis. The stat about Robinhood's 90% margin on options is wild. Your friend's parlay options idea is terrifying and probably inevitable. I'd be curious about the regulatory arbitrage angle - why have regulators been so permissive with these products? Is it because they emerged in grey zones (crypto, FanDuel), or because there's genuine confusion about what consitutes gambling vs investing?

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Shreyas Hariharan's avatar

Thank you!

Regulatory permissiveness correlates with technology changes. Smartphones made it way easier to distribute investing and gambling products to the masses, people demanded these products, and there was pressure on regulators from companies to legalize them. It’s difficult for regulators to know where exactly to draw the line, and state and federal government often have different views. In the case of sports betting: states allow it because it’s taxed heavily. States can raise income without doing unpopular things like raising taxes or cutting spending.

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Juan Uys's avatar

I saw similar talking point on YT the other day:

Coffeezilla - Exposing the Gambling Epidemic

https://youtu.be/9Ii1ROzeSwU

The video also mentions banking apps with roulette wheels baked in, and a real piece of evil coming soon: cheddr, which combines tiktok-like scrolling with tinder-like left/right swipe to bet for/against (or is it against/for; I've never used tinder, thank dog). And of course they've loop-holed it so those under gambling age can use it.

I also don't know how I feel about games like Balatro winning all the awards. Could it be a gateway drug to real gambling? The game feels hollow, and doesn't satisfy any particular traditional/wholesome power fantasy, but I can see how the game can really hook a certain type of brain.

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Shreyas Hariharan's avatar

That was an excellent video. Yeah there are people building gambling-like products for every demographic (teens, young women, men, grandmas) and interest (sports, politics, memes, culture).

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Run Cage's avatar

What a beautiful work… concise yet full of information.

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Shreyas Hariharan's avatar

Thank you!

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jeff tang's avatar

The live event of perps trading also reminds of the clips of memecoin traders a few months ago when memecoins were still hot.

I recall some creating custom keybindings for fast entry/exit. I believe the most profitable memecoin traders had average hold times of a few seconds.

Really looks identical to e-sports.

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Shreyas Hariharan's avatar

100%, trading is becoming a spectator sport.

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Tim Dingman's avatar

One more positive example: prize-linked savings accounts like Yotta. Unfortunately they went down with the Synapse bankruptcy

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Shreyas Hariharan's avatar

Yes, no loss lotteries are good products in theory because the customer’s principal isn’t at risk, but they haven’t gotten as much adoption. PoolTogether is another no loss lottery product on crypto rails that hasn’t taken off. It seems like people need to risk their principal to value the lottery payoff.

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