The Psychology of a Gambling Game

There are three types of games, but only one lends itself to becoming habitual, mainstream gambling products.

Games of luck

The first type of game is a game of luck like a slot machine, roulette wheel, or lottery. This game is entirely driven by chance: there is no skill involved in influencing the outcome.

However, it requires basic human agency like tapping a screen, rolling dice, spinning a wheel, or buying a lottery ticket, so your brain temporarily mistakes it for control, and prods you to do the deliberately simple action again, hoping for a different outcome the next time.

Your excitement comes from an unexpected result you cannot control. While this appeals to people already wired for gambling and those who want to try this for fun, it is difficult to become a habitual, mainstream gambling product because most people have a negative reaction to casino-style games that are entirely driven by luck.

Games of skill

The second type of game is a game of skill like chess, sudoku, or Counter-Strike. This game is driven entirely by skill: the best player wins almost every time. You cannot beat Novak Djokovic at tennis, however hard you try.

These kinds of games are fun for mainstream people to play because they are easily accessible, you can play people at your level, and you can improve with practice. It is also fun to watch talented people play games of skill live.

But since the outcomes are determined by clear skill levels with minimal uncertainty, they are hard to make into repeat gambling products because there’s no built-in randomness to bet against. For example, if a chess app added the option for users to bet $10 on a match against their similarly matched opponent, most wouldn’t do it because the randomness is minimal and there is no lottery-esque financial upside.

Games that are perceived to be skill based, but are driven by luck

The third type of game is one like sports betting, prediction markets, and poker. This game feels skill based so it attracts a mainstream audience, but the outcomes depend on chance. This is the perfect intersection for mainstream gambling products.

Perceived skill makes people think they can spot edges, so the house (gambling app) can bake in a healthy margin.

In this video, a woman reassures her boyfriend after his fantasy football team lost. “It’s not your fault that your fantasy team lost,” she says. “You’re so talented. You know exactly what you’re doing.”

Near-misses and “I almost called it” stories fuel the next bet, and the action continues.

What makes mainstream gambling products

For a game to become a mainstream gambling product, the outcome needs to be uncertain. This ensures that the favorites lose often enough to keep hope alive for everyone else. Players should still perceive the game to be one of skill, so they feel like they can outsmart others, even if it’s actually driven by luck. The game should produce a result fast enough to trigger a compulsive urge to bet again.

Imagine a chess app that allows users to bet money on their match, but now an in-game Magnus Carlsen bot can randomly remove a piece from either side. The players don’t know when this would happen, what piece will be removed, or which side Magnus will target. This introduces chance, which flips results wildly. It also shortens the game, which makes people want to bet again.

What other games have the perception of skill but are actually based on luck?